Match Report: Osasuna vs Leganés

• Osasuna
• CD Leganés
• Date: [17/08/2024]
• Stadium: El Sadar, Pamplona
• Competition: La Liga EA Sports, Matchday 1

General Context

Osasuna begins the 2024-2025 season after a disappointing finish last season, ending in 11th place, their lowest since their relegation campaign in 2016-17. With the arrival of Vicente Moreno as head coach following the departure of Jagoba Arrasate, Osasuna looks to rebuild. Although the club hasn’t been very active in the transfer market, the arrival of Bryan Zaragoza from Bayern Munich has generated excitement. This opening match gives Osasuna a chance to bounce back, particularly since they have not lost an opening match in their last five seasons (W4, D1).

Leganés, on the other hand, returns to La Liga after four seasons in the Segunda División. Their impressive form toward the end of the 2023-24 season, with just one defeat in 13 matches, gives them confidence as they enter the top flight. Despite being newly promoted, Leganés has bolstered its squad with key additions, including Marko Dmitrović and Óscar Rodríguez from Sevilla, and they will be eager to perform on the big stage. However, they have struggled in their past league openers, losing the last three.

Osasuna

Osasuna’s strong track record at home, especially against newly promoted sides, makes them the favorites for this clash. They are unbeaten in their last six home games against promoted teams (W5, D1), and El Sadar has been a fortress for them in such matchups. Raul Garcia’s end-of-season form, with three goals in four matches, will be crucial for Osasuna’s attack. They also have the advantage of experience and a solid squad despite some key departures.

Leganés

Leganés returns to La Liga looking to cause an upset at El Sadar. Their away form in the Segunda División last season was excellent, with nine wins, six draws, and only six losses. However, adjusting to the pace and quality of La Liga will be a challenge. Dmitrović’s and Rodríguez’s experience will be vital as they aim to stop Osasuna’s attack. Miguel de la Fuente, the top scorer from last season, will need to be at his best to breach Osasuna’s defense.

Odds and Expectations

• Osasuna Victory: 1.80 euros – Osasuna is considered the favorite due to their strong home record and consistent performance in season openers.
• Draw: 3.50 euros – The odds reflect the possibility of a close, low-scoring match, especially with Leganés’ defensive structure.
• Leganés Victory: 4.00 euros – Leganés is the underdog but cannot be ruled out after their strong finish to last season and their reinforced squad.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals:

• Over 2.5 Goals: 2.10 euros – The market expects a moderately low-scoring game, though there is potential for more goals if both teams push offensively.
• Under 2.5 Goals: 1.73 euros – Favored by the odds, indicating a cautious approach from both sides with a focus on defense.

Both Teams to Score:

• Yes: 1.95 euros – The possibility is there, but it’s considered slightly less likely given Osasuna’s solid defense and Leganés’ potential struggle to adapt.
• No: 1.80 euros – Marginally favored, as Osasuna’s defense is expected to be difficult to break down, especially at home.

Head-to-Head Analysis

Osasuna has the upper hand historically in this fixture, particularly in recent years. They have won five out of their last six home matches against Leganés, including a 2-1 victory in their last La Liga encounter at El Sadar in 2020. Leganés, meanwhile, has struggled to get results in Pamplona, and their last victory at El Sadar dates back to 2016 in the Segunda División.

Conclusion

Osasuna is clearly the favorite for this match, especially playing at home, where they have a solid record against newly promoted sides. Leganés, while confident after a strong end to their Segunda División campaign, will face a tough challenge adapting to the top flight in their first match of the season. Expect a close game, with Osasuna holding the edge due to their experience and home advantage.

Estimated Probabilities for Outcomes and Bets

Summary:

• Osasuna Win: 55% – Home advantage and solid form against newly promoted teams.
• Draw: 25% – Leganés could push for a result, but Osasuna’s defense may hold strong.
• Leganés Win: 20% – Unlikely but possible if they adapt quickly to the pace of La Liga.