📅 Date: 21/12/2024, 14.00 h
🏟️ Stadium: Coliseum (Getafe)
🏆 La Liga Ea Sports – Matchday 18
Estimated Probabilities for Outcomes and Bets:
| Outcome/Bet | Estimated Probability |
|---|
| 🏆 Getafe to Win | 35% |
| 🤝 Draw | 40% ❌ |
| ⚽ Mallorca to Win | 25% |
| 🔼 Over 2.5 Goals | 40% |
| 🔽 Under 2.5 Goals | 60% ✅ |
| ⚽ Both Teams to Score (BTTS) -NO | 45% ✅ |
🎯 Top 3 Most Probable Correct Scores
| Correct Score | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| 0-0 Draw | 30% |
| 1-1 Draw | 25% ❌ |
| 1-0 Getafe Win | 20% |
Betting Strategy:
📈 Our Betting Strategy: Fractional Kelly and Flat Betting
At PICK-IA, we pride ourselves on providing our clients with HIGH-VALUE PICKS, and a key part of our success lies in our betting strategy. Instead of relying on a single method, we use a hybrid strategy that combines the best of two approaches: Fractional Kelly and Flat Betting.
🔹 What is the Kelly Formula?
The Kelly Formula is a mathematical tool that helps determine how much to bet based on the edge we have over the bookmaker. The idea is to bet more when the probability of winning is high and less when it’s low. However, betting 100% of what Kelly recommends can be risky due to the volatility of sports.
⚖️ Why Do We Use Fractional Kelly (50%)?
Rather than applying the full Kelly formula, at PICK-IA, we use a fractional version (50%). This means we bet only half of what the Kelly Formula suggests. This approach allows us to:
- Maximize bankroll growth when we find a high-value bet.
- Reduce the risk of significant losses during losing streaks.
For example:
- If Kelly recommends betting 10% of the bankroll, with Fractional Kelly, we bet only 5%.
📊 When Do We Use Flat Betting?
When we identify a moderate-value bet or want to be more conservative, we use the Flat Betting strategy. This involves always betting a fixed percentage of the bankroll, usually between 2% and 3%. This provides stability and protects our bankroll on less certain bets.
🔄 Flexibility and Continuous Improvement
Our hybrid strategy gives us the flexibility to adapt to different situations and confidence levels. Additionally, we are in a constant process of improvement and adjustment, analyzing our results and optimizing the algorithm to identify the best value opportunities.
🚀 Why is This Strategy Effective?
✅ Risk Control: We combine growth and bankroll protection.
✅ Adaptability: We adjust our strategy to each bet.
✅ Consistency: It ensures sustainable and effective bankroll management over the long term.
With this strategy, at PICK-IA, we help you bet smarter and with confidence! 🧠💰
To provide a balanced betting strategy, we recommend spreading the investment across different outcomes to manage risk and maximize potential returns.